By Vincent Petit
Against the backdrop of fast advances within the power area, this publication presents a concise assessment of the advanced demanding situations within the power paradigm at the present time, which revolve round the likely unsolvable power equation.
the writer, an skilled power expert, combines some of the features of the power transition right into a unmarried point of view. whereas highlighting a few salient difficulties, he additionally explores grounds for optimism that those demanding situations can and should be met.
After constructing the historic context, the e-book provides an research of today’s strength undefined, diverse strength resources, international locations and determinants of power call for, supplementing all sections with a wealth of world and native info. It for that reason proposes measures to unravel the power equation and a roadmap for a sustainable destiny, in response to extra effective strength use, cleanser power creation and complex applied sciences.
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Extra resources for The Energy Transition: An Overview of the True Challenge of the 21st Century
6% per year. This region alone represents 50% of the total world production increase. All other sources of oil production which had developed from # Springer International Publishing AG 2017 V. 1007/978-3-319-50292-2_3 33 34 3 The Energy Industry: Running at Full Speed Fig. 1 Worldwide oil production (BP 2014) Fig. 2 Worldwide oil production per region (BP 2014) the 1970s have either stagnated or decreased in the last 10 years. 9% on average per year. 5% per year on average. 5% per year. This means that oil production has concentrated among a few players in the last 10 years.
Whatever the scenario, the usages of energy and consumption profiles will evolve strongly in the years to come. Energy efficiency and insulation of buildings will lead to decreased energy waste in space heating, but this would be largely Fig. 4 Energy Use in Buildings 21 Fig. 21 Evolution of buildings’ energy consumption per region (# OECD/IEA, Buildings 2013) Fig. 22 Evolution of buildings’ energy consumption per source (# OECD/IEA, Buildings 2013; # OECD/IEA, WEO 2012) compensated by the rise in energy consumption by electrical appliances.
Restarting a field is less costly than developing a new field (BNP 2015). The typical payback for investments in new fields averages 8 years, with the notable exception of shale oil in the United States, for which payback is only 2 years. An accurate and sustainable oil price level is extremely important to trigger the massive capital expenditure investments that the development of a new field requires. To sum up, oil price depends upon a multiplicity of factors. Some will affect short-term oil price variations, such as: – – – – oil inventory levels short-term unplanned production disruptions (technical, geopolitical) spare capacities of OPEC countries and their capability to regulate output marginal cost of production while a few other factors will influence oil price variations in the mid-term: – consumption demand evolution and its responsiveness to oil price evolutions – the economic soundness to develop new production capacities to renew depleted reserves These two oil price variations cycles obey different rules, and must thus be looked at separately.